Hi!
Para aqueles que não acompanham as traduções de Espanhol eu disse ontem que a autorização para o concurso da CGU tinha andado várias vezes nos últimos dias. Somente ontem o processo andou por duas vezes.
Bom dia de estudo para todos.
Adinoél Sebastião
[email protected]
[email protected]
Texto
Don’t lie to me, Argentina
Why we are removing a figure from our indicators page
IMAGINE a world without statistics. Governments would fumble in the dark, investors would waste money and electorates would struggle to hold their political leaders to account. This is why The Economist publishes more than 1,000 figures each week, on matters such as output, prices and jobs, from a host of countries. We cannot be sure that all these figures are trustworthy. Statistical offices vary in their technical sophistication and ability to resist political pressure. China’s numbers, for example, can be dodgy; Greece underreported its deficit, with disastrous consequences. But on the whole government statisticians arrive at their figures in good faith.
What’s in a number
There is one glaring exception. Since 2007 Argentina’s government has published inflation figures that almost nobody believes. These show prices as having risen by between 5% and 11% a year. Independent economists, provincial statistical offices and surveys of inflation expectations have all put the rate at more than double the official number. The government has often granted unions pay rises of that order.
What seems to have started as a desire to avoid bad headlines in a country with a history of hyperinflation has led to the debasement of INDEC, once one of Latin America’s best statistical offices. Its premises are now plastered with posters supporting the president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Independent-minded staff were replaced by self-described “Cristinistas”. In an extraordinary abuse of power by a democratic government, independent economists have been forced to stop publishing their own estimates of inflation by fines and threats of prosecution. Misreported prices have cheated holders of inflation-linked bonds out of billions of dollars.
We see no prospect of a speedy return to credible numbers. The trade secretary, Guillermo Moreno, who led the assault on INDEC, is still one of the president’s closest advisers. The IMF has “noted” that Argentina is failing in its obligation to provide it with reliable figures, and made recommendations and set deadlines for it to improve. However, when Argentina ignores it, the fund merely wrings its hands, laments the “absence of progress”—and feebly sets a new deadline.
In 2010 we added a precautionary footnote to our statistical tables. From this week, we have decided to drop INDEC’s figures entirely. We are tired of being an unwilling party to what appears to be a deliberate attempt to deceive voters and swindle investors. For Argentine consumer-price data we will look instead to PriceStats, an inflation specialist, which produces figures for 19 countries that are published by State Street, an investment bank. Had we switched to one of the provincial statistical offices still generating reliable figures, we fear it would have come under government pressure. One of the country’s best independent analysts made us a generous—and brave—offer of its data against legal advice and on condition that we conceal the source and lightly disguise the numbers. That might have generated confusion.
PriceStats is based in the United States, beyond the Argentine government’s reach. The oodles of online prices on which its index is based are tamper-proof. Argentina will no doubt say that it measures consumption by the rich rather than the poor, who may not shop online. But PriceStats’ methods are based on solid, peer-reviewed research and have proved an impressive match for (dependable) official figures in countries such as Brazil and Venezuela.
We hope that we can soon revert to an official consumer-price index for Argentina. That would require INDEC to be run by independent statisticians working unhindered. Until then, readers are better served by a credible unofficial figure than a bogus official one.
Tradução Livre
Don’t lie to me, Argentina
Não minta para mim, Argentina
Why we are removing a figure from our indicators page
Porque nós estamos removendo os dados de nossa página de indicadores
IMAGINE a world without statistics. Governments would fumble in the dark, investors would waste money and electorates would struggle to hold their political leaders to account. This is why The Economist publishes more than 1,000 figures each week, on matters such as output, prices and jobs, from a host of countries. We cannot be sure that all these figures are trustworthy. Statistical offices vary in their technical sophistication and ability to resist political pressure. China’s numbers, for example, can be dodgy; Greece underreported its deficit, with disastrous consequences. But on the whole government statisticians arrive at their figures in good faith.
Imagine um mundo sem estatísticas. Os governos apalpariam no escuro, os investidores desperdiçariam dinheiro e o eleitorado se esforçaria para manter seus líderes políticos controlados. Este é o porquê que o The Economist publica mais de 1000 dados a cada semana, sobre matérias como produção, preços e empregos, vindos de vários países. Não podemos estar certos de que todos esses dados são dignos de confiança. As estatísticas oficiais variam em sua sofisticação tecnológica e na habilidade para resistir a pressão política. Os números da China, por exemplo, podem ser suspeitos; a Grécia não relatou seus déficits, com consequências desastrosas. Mas em todo governo os estatísticos colocam seus dados em boa fé.
What’s in a number
O que é um número
There is one glaring exception. Since 2007 Argentina’s government has published inflation figures that almost nobody believes. These show prices as having risen by between 5% and 11% a year. Independent economists, provincial statistical offices and surveys of inflation expectations have all put the rate at more than double the official number. The government has often granted unions pay rises of that order.
Há uma clara exceção. Desde 2007 o governo da Argentina tem publicado dados de inflação que quase ninguém acredita. Esses mostram preços como tendo aumentado entre 5% e 11% ao ano. Economistas independentes, escritórios de estatística das províncias e pesquisas de expectativa de inflação têm todos colocado uma taxa mais do que o dobro que o número oficial. O governo tem frequentemente beneficiado aumentos de pagamentos dos sindicatos maiores do que o pedido.
What seems to have started as a desire to avoid bad headlines in a country with a history of hyperinflation has led to the debasement of INDEC, once one of Latin America’s best statistical offices. Its premises are now plastered with posters supporting the president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Independent-minded staff were replaced by self-described “Cristinistas”. In an extraordinary abuse of power by a democratic government, independent economists have been forced to stop publishing their own estimates of inflation by fines and threats of prosecution. Misreported prices have cheated holders of inflation-linked bonds out of billions of dollars.
O que parece ter começaco como um desejo para evitar manchetes más num país com uma história de hiperinflação* levou para a adulteração do INDEC, um dos melhores escritório de estatísticas da América Latina. Suas premissas estão agora lambuzadas com cartazes apoiando a presidenta, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Funcionários com pensamento independente foram substituídos pelos autointitulados com “Cristinistas”. Em um extraordinário abuso de poder de um governo democrático, economistas independentes foram forçados a parar de publicar suas próprias estimativas de inflação por multas e ameaças de instauração de processo. Preços relatados errados tem enganado titulares de títulos ligados à inflação a perder bilhões de dólares.
*De acordo com a Nova Ortografia.
We see no prospect of a speedy return to credible numbers. The trade secretary, Guillermo Moreno, who led the assault on INDEC, is still one of the president’s closest advisers. The IMF has “noted” that Argentina is failing in its obligation to provide it with reliable figures, and made recommendations and set deadlines for it to improve. However, when Argentina ignores it, the fund merely wrings its hands, laments the “absence of progress”—and feebly sets a new deadline.
Nós não vemos perspectiva de um rápido retorno para números acreditáveis. O secretário de Comércio, Guilhermo Moreno, que levou o assalto sobre o INDEC, é ainda um dos conselheiros mais próximos da presidenta. O FMI “anotou” que a Argentina está falhando em suas obrigações para fornecer dados confiáveis, fez recomendações e colocou prazo final para seu fornecimento. Contudo, quando a Argentina ignora isso, o fundo somente aperta suas mãos, lamenta a “ausência de progresso” – e debilmente coloca um novo prazo final.
In 2010 we added a precautionary footnote to our statistical tables. From this week, we have decided to drop INDEC’s figures entirely. We are tired of being an unwilling party to what appears to be a deliberate attempt to deceive voters and swindle investors. For Argentine consumer-price data we will look instead to PriceStats, an inflation specialist, which produces figures for 19 countries that are published by State Street, an investment bank. Had we switched to one of the provincial statistical offices still generating reliable figures, we fear it would have come under government pressure. One of the country’s best independent analysts made us a generous—and brave—offer of its data against legal advice and on condition that we conceal the source and lightly disguise the numbers. That might have generated confusion.
Em 2010 nós adicionamos uma nota de rodapé de precaução em nossas tabelas estatísticas. Nessa semana, nós decidimos descontinuamos dos dados do INDEC inteiramente. Nós estamos cansados de ser uma parte teimosa do que parece ser uma tentativa deliberada de enganar os eleitores e fraudar investidores. Para os dados de preços ao consumidor da Argentina nós consideramos no lugar o PriceStats, um especialista em inflação, o qual produz dados para 19 países que são publicados pelo State Street, um banco de investimento. Tivéssemos nós trocado por um dos escritórios de estatísticas local ainda gerando dados confiáveis, nós temeríamos que ele viria a sofrer pressão do governo. Um dos melhores analistas independentes fez-nos um generosa – e brava – oferta de seus dados contrário a informação legal e sobre a condição de que nós escondéssemos a fonte e disfarçássemos os números. Isto poderia gerar confusão.
PriceStats is based in the United States, beyond the Argentine government’s reach. The oodles of online prices on which its index is based are tamper-proof. Argentina will no doubt say that it measures consumption by the rich rather than the poor, who may not shop online. But PriceStats’ methods are based on solid, peer-reviewed research and have proved an impressive match for (dependable) official figures in countries such as Brazil and Venezuela.
PriceStats é sediado nos Estados Unidos, além do alcance do governo argentino. A grande quantidade de preços online sobre o qual seus índices são baseados são dados invioláveis. Não duvidará dizer que ele mede o consumo tantos de ricos quanto de pobres, estes que não podem comprar online. Mas o método do PriceStats é baseado sobre pesquisas revisadas e sólidas e tem fornecido uma impressionante semelhança (confiável) com os dados oficiais em países como o Brasil e Venezuela.
We hope that we can soon revert to an official consumer-price index for Argentina. That would require INDEC to be run by independent statisticians working unhindered. Until then, readers are better served by a credible unofficial figure than a bogus official one.
Nós esperamos que nós possamos em breve reverter para um índice de preços ao consumidor oficial para a Argentina. Isto requereria que o INDEC fosse dirigido por estatísticos independentes trabalhando sem embaraço. Até então, os leitores estão melhor servidos por um dados não oficial acreditável do que um falsificação oficial.