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Atendendo a pedidos, trago mais uma tradução de texto para a Receita: um artigo publicado no Economist de ontem. Para acessar o curso de Língua Inglesa para a Receita Federal, click cursos online > por professor > Ena Smith
Sep 3rd 2014, by E.W. | LAGOS
MORE than 1,900 people have so far died from Ebola in the four affected West African countries, but many more will suffer the economic consequences. Governments reckon the worst of those effects are yet to be felt, but they are still busy trying to calculate what the outbreak is going to cost them. Here are Liberia’s thoughts:
The tiny post-conflict country has been growing at upwards of 8% over the last couple of years, but won’t expect anything like that kind of luck now. The government is still number-crunching with the International Monetary Fund, but it reckons Ebola will shave more than 2% of growth rates this year, putting estimates at 3.5%.
Finance minister Amara Konneh says that’s mostly because of damage done to mining, agriculture and service industries, as investors evacuate foreign workers, borders close, and international flights are suspended. Bread-basket regions are under quarantine, making agricultural trade impossible. Sime Darby, the world’s largest listed producer of oil palm, is slowing production and Sifca Group, an Ivory Coast-based agribusiness, has halted rubber exports. Mr Konneh expects iron ore exports to fall in 2015 because investors like China Union and Arcelor Mittal are scaling down their operations and putting expansion plans on hold. Foreign exchange shortages are a big concern.
The finance ministry is bracing itself for up to $30m in lost revenues; a “significant” amount, it says, in the context of its meagre budget. Add to that the high cost of fighting the virus, and the country will run up a big fiscal deficit, even in light of international assistance. The government is putting in place fiscal austerity measures to compensate for that, including suspending all official foreign travel. But it may still may have to turn to the IMF for additional help.
Right now, Mr Konneh says, the priority is that the government allocates enough money to the healthcare sector. After that, it worries about paying its public servants. Security to enforce quarantines and curfews comes next. The rest, for now, may have to wait.
Source: http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/09/costs-pandemic
CUSTOS ECONÔMICOS DO EBOLA
Sep 3rd 2014, by E.W. | LAGOS
MORE than 1,900 people have so far died from Ebola in the four affected West African countries, but many more will suffer the economic consequences. Governments reckon the worst of those effects are yet to be felt, but they are still busy trying to calculate what the outbreak is going to cost them. Here are Liberia’s thoughts:
Mais de 1.900 pessoas já morreram até agora com a doença Ebola nos quatro países Africanos Ocidentais afetados, mas muitos mais vão sofrer as consequências económicas. Os Governos acreditam que o pior desses efeitos ainda está para ser sentido, mas eles ainda estão ocupados tentando calcular o que o surto vai custar-lhes. Seguem algumas considerações da Libéria:
The tiny post-conflict country has been growing at upwards of 8% over the last couple of years, but won’t expect anything like that kind of luck now. The government is still number-crunching with the International Monetary Fund, but it reckons Ebola will shave more than 2% of growth rates this year, putting estimates at 3.5%.
O pequeno país, que está em situação de pós conflito, tem crescido mais de 8% nos últimos dois anos, mas não espera ter um resultado positivo assim atualmente. O governo ainda está calculando junto ao Fundo Monetário Internacional, mas estima que o Ebola vai causar o decréscimo de mais de 2% de taxas de crescimento este ano, podendo chegar até a 3,5%.
Finance minister Amara Konneh says that’s mostly because of damage done to mining, agriculture and service industries, as investors evacuate foreign workers, borders close, and international flights are suspended. Bread-basket regions are under quarantine, making agricultural trade impossible. Sime Darby, the world’s largest listed producer of oil palm, is slowing production and Sifca Group, an Ivory Coast-based agribusiness, has halted rubber exports. Mr Konneh expects iron ore exports to fall in 2015 because investors like China Union and Arcelor Mittal are scaling down their operations and putting expansion plans on hold. Foreign exchange shortages are a big concern.
O ministro das Finanças Amara Konneh diz que tal situação é causada principalmente pelo prejuízo à mineração, agricultura e indústrias de serviços, visto que os investidores evacuam trabalhadores estrangeiros, as fronteiras se fecham, e os vôos internacionais estão suspensos. As regiões conhecidas como celeiros estão sob quarentena, tornando impossível o comércio agrícola. Sime Darby, o maior produtor mundial de óleo de palma, está diminuindo a produção e a SIFCA Group, uma agroindústria com sede na Costa do Marfim, suspendeu as exportações de borracha. Konneh acredita que as exportações de minério de ferro vão diminuir em 2015, porque os investidores, como a China e a União Arcelor Mittal estão reduzindo as suas operações e deixando de lado seus planos de expansão. A escassez de divisas é uma grande preocupação.
The finance ministry is bracing itself for up to $30m in lost revenues; a “significant” amount, it says, in the context of its meagre budget. Add to that the high cost of fighting the virus, and the country will run up a big fiscal deficit, even in light of international assistance. The government is putting in place fiscal austerity measures to compensate for that, including suspending all official foreign travel. But it may still may have to turn to the IMF for additional help.
O Ministério das Finanças está se preparando para até 30 milhões de dólares em receitas perdidas; uma quantidade “significativa”, diz, no contexto de seu magro orçamento. Acrescente a isso o alto custo de combater o vírus, e o país terá um grande déficit fiscal , mesmo à luz da assistência internacional. O governo está colocando em prática medidas de austeridade fiscal para compensar isso, inclusive suspendendo todas as viagens oficiais para fora do país. Mas ele ainda pode ter de recorrer ao FMI para obter ajuda adicional.
Right now, Mr Konneh says, the priority is that the government allocates enough money to the healthcare sector. After that, it worries about paying its public servants. Security to enforce quarantines and curfews comes next. The rest, for now, may have to wait.
Neste momento, diz Konneh, a prioridade é que o governo direcione verba suficiente para o setor da saúde. Depois disso, ele se preocupa com o pagamento de seus servidores públicos. Em seguida, virá a segurança para impor quarentenas e toques de recolher. O resto, por enquanto, talvez tem que esperar.
Abraços e bons estudos,
profa, Ena Smith