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Finance Minister Admits Brazilian Economy Has Had a Tough Year
In conversation with interlocutors, the finance minister Guido Mantega has recognized that the Brazilian government is going through “hard times” fiscally, and that the primary surplus – the funds the government uses to service its debts – “will not be what we had imagined.”
This cautious assessment of the situation differs from that which has previously been made public. Mantega admitted that “it has been a difficult year.” However, he argued that there is no cause for alarm, and that the surplus “will be sufficient to maintain stability of public finances and of the economy.”
In September, the public sector registered a record primary deficit (revenues minus expenses, except for debt interest). Moreover, in the first nine months of this year, surplus was just R$44.9 billion (US$ 19.5 billion), or 1.28% of GDP. This was well below the target of R$111 billion (US$ 48 billion), or 2.3% of GDP.
While affirming that the government is still committed to reaching this target, Mantega indicated that it is unlikely to be achieved in its totality. “We’re doing everything we can to reach as close to that figure as possible,” he said. He also reiterated that Brazil will still have one of the world’s largest surpluses, enough to keep public debt under control.
The minister said that Brazil will not lose its credit rating – a mark provided by ratings agencies to economies considered to be at low risk of bankruptcy. He was also upbeat about the prospects for next year, asserting that the evaluation of the ratings agencies of Brazilian fiscal policy would be “much better.”
Mantega’s confidence is based upon government policy to be implemented in the coming months. He revealed that the government is to reverse its policy of tax exemptions for durable goods such as cars and electrodomestics. This will be possible because “the appetite for consumption is returning, moderately.”
He also said that the government has yet to decide what will be the surplus target adjusted for next year. In the proposed budget, the goal is set at 3.1% of GDP. Mantega believes that a more ambitious target provides a challenge for the public sector.
This year the government revised the target to 2.3%. For next year – an election year – the market is expecting a maximum of 1.8%. The government’s targets are considered reasonable by analysts, though they criticize the attempts to conceal negative results, both in public discourse and by the use of accounting maneuvers.
Fonte: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2013/11/1368515-finance-minister-admits-brazilian-economy-has-had-a-tough-year.shtml
Tradução Livre
Finance Minister Admits Brazilian Economy Has Had a Tough Year
Ministro da Fazenda admite que a economia brasileira tem tido um ano duro
In conversation with interlocutors, the finance minister Guido Mantega has recognized that the Brazilian government is going through “hard times” fiscally, and that the primary surplus – the funds the government uses to service its debts – “will not be what we had imagined.”
Em conversa com interlocutores, o ministro da fazenda Guido Mantega tem reconhecido que o governo brasileiro está passando por “tempos difíceis” fiscalmente, e que o superávit primário – o fundo que o governo usa para o serviço da dívida – “não será o que nós tínhamos imaginado”.
This cautious assessment of the situation differs from that which has previously been made public. Mantega admitted that “it has been a difficult year.” However, he argued that there is no cause for alarm, and that the surplus “will be sufficient to maintain stability of public finances and of the economy.”
Esta avaliação cautelosa da situação difere da que tinha sido previamente tornada pública. Mantega admitiu que “está sendo um ano difícil”. Contudo, ele argumenta que não há causa para alarme, e que o superávit “será suficiente para manter a estabilidade das finanças pública e da economia”.
In September, the public sector registered a record primary deficit (revenues minus expenses, except for debt interest). Moreover, in the first nine months of this year, surplus was just R$44.9 billion (US$ 19.5 billion), or 1.28% of GDP. This was well below the target of R$111 billion (US$ 48 billion), or 2.3% of GDP.
Em setembro, o setor público registrou um recorde de déficit primário (receita menus despesas, exceto para juros da dívida). Além disso, nos primeiros nove meses deste ano, o superávit foi somente de 44,9 bilhões de reais (19,5 bilhões de dólares), ou 1,28% do PIB. Isso foi bem abaixo da meta de 111 bilhões de reais (48 bilhões de dólares), ou 2,3 do PIB.
While affirming that the government is still committed to reaching this target, Mantega indicated that it is unlikely to be achieved in its totality. “We’re doing everything we can to reach as close to that figure as possible,” he said. He also reiterated that Brazil will still have one of the world’s largest surpluses, enough to keep public debt under control.
Apesar de afirmar que o governo ainda está empenhado para alcançar a meta, Mantega indicou que é improvável que seja alcançada em sua totalidade. “Nós estamos fazendo tudo que nós podemos para chegar tão próximo quanto possível”, ele disse. Ele também reiterou que o Brasil ainda terá um dos maiores superávits do mundo, suficiente para manter o débito público sob controle.
The minister said that Brazil will not lose its credit rating – a mark provided by ratings agencies to economies considered to be at low risk of bankruptcy. He was also upbeat about the prospects for next year, asserting that the evaluation of the ratings agencies of Brazilian fiscal policy would be “much better.”
O ministro disse que o Brasil não perderá sua avaliação de crédito – uma marca provida por agência de avaliação para economias consideradas a estar em baixo risco de falência. Ele também estava otimista sobre as perspectivas para o próximo ano, afirmando que a avaliação das agências de avaliação da política fiscal do Brasil poderia ser “muito melhor”.
Mantega’s confidence is based upon government policy to be implemented in the coming months. He revealed that the government is to reverse its policy of tax exemptions for durable goods such as cars and electrodomestics. This will be possible because “the appetite for consumption is returning, moderately.”
A confiança de Mantega é baseada na política de governo a ser implementada nos próximos meses. Ele revelou que o governo está para reverter sua política da taxa de isenção para bens duráveis tais como carros e eletrodomésticos. Isso será possível por causa “o apetite para consumir está retornando, moderadamente”.
He also said that the government has yet to decide what will be the surplus target adjusted for next year. In the proposed budget, the goal is set at 3.1% of GDP. Mantega believes that a more ambitious target provides a challenge for the public sector.
Ele também disse que o governo ainda que decidir qual será a meta do superávit ajustada para o próximo ano. Na proposta de orçamento, o objetivo é colocar 3,1% do PIB. Mantega acredita que uma meta mais ambiciosa provê um desafio para o setor público.
This year the government revised the target to 2.3%. For next year – an election year – the market is expecting a maximum of 1.8%. The government’s targets are considered reasonable by analysts, though they criticize the attempts to conceal negative results, both in public discourse and by the use of accounting maneuvers.
Este ano o governo revisou a meta para 2,3%. Para o próximo ano – um ano de eleição – o mercado está esperando um máximo de 1,8%. As metas do governo são consideradas razoáveis pelos analistas, embora eles critiquem as tentativas de esconder os resultados negativos, no discurso público e pelo uso de manobras contábeis.