TEXTO
Brazils economy
Wrong numbers
More inflation, less growth
FOR Brazilians, disappointing economic news just
keeps coming. After weak third-quarter GDP figures shocked market economists
and government at the end of November, both cut their predictions for growth in
2012 to just 1%. Then the government admitted it would only hit its closely
watched target for the primary fiscal surplusof 3.1% of GDPby omitting some
infrastructure spending from the sums, bringing forward dividends from
state-owned firms and raiding the sovereign wealth-fund it set up in 2008. Now
inflation figures have brought more gloom. During 2012 prices rose by 5.84%above
market expectations, and, for the third year running, close to the ceiling of
the range (2.5-6.5%) targeted by the Central Bank.
In fact, the headline figure underestimates
inflationary pressures. If the federal government had not capped petrol prices,
and municipalities frozen public-transport fares before Octobers local
elections, last years figure would have been closer to 6.5%. In 2013 both
those prices are likely to rise. The end of a sales-tax holiday for cars will
boost inflation, too. Most analysts now think that inflation will be around 6%
this year. Week by week, they are revising down their forecasts for economic
growth in 2013, now at about 3%.
Tradução
Live
Brazils economy [Economia do Brasil]
Wrong numbers [Números
ruins]
More inflation, less growth
[Mais inflação, menos crescimento]
FOR Brazilians, disappointing economic news just
keeps coming. After weak third-quarter GDP figures shocked market economists
and government at the end of November, both cut their predictions for growth in
2012 to just 1%. Then the government admitted it would only hit its closely
watched target for the primary fiscal surplusof 3.1% of GDPby omitting some
infrastructure spending from the sums, bringing forward dividends from
state-owned firms and raiding the sovereign wealth-fund it set up in 2008. Now
inflation figures have brought more gloom. During 2012 prices rose by 5.84%above
market expectations, and, for the third year running, close to the ceiling of
the range (2.5-6.5%) targeted by the Central Bank.
Para os brasileiros, decepcionantes notícias
econômicas continuam chegando. Após um fraco terceiro trimestre os dados do PIB
chocaram o mercado econômico e o governo no final de novembro e ambos cortaram
suas previsões para o crescimento em 2012 para apenas 1%. Depois o governo admitiu
que somente atingiria seu objetivo para o superávit fiscal primário de 3,1%
do PIB omitindo alguns gastos de infraestrutura, trazendo adiante dividendos
de empresas estatais e invadindo o fundo soberano criado em 2008. Agora os
dados da inflação trouxeram mais tristeza. Durante 2012 os preços aumentaram
5,84% – sobre as expectativas de mercado, e, para o terceiro ano consecutivo,
perto do teto do intervalo (2,5% 6,5%) objetivado pelo Banco Central.
In fact, the headline figure underestimates
inflationary pressures. If the federal government had not capped petrol prices,
and municipalities frozen public-transport fares before Octobers local
elections, last years figure would have been closer to 6.5%. In 2013 both
those prices are likely to rise. The end of a sales-tax holiday for cars will
boost inflation, too. Most analysts now think that inflation will be around 6%
this year. Week by week, they are revising down their forecasts for economic
growth in 2013, now at about 3%.
De
fato, o dado da manchete subestima as pressões inflacionárias. Se o governo
federal não tivesse coberto os preços do petróleo, e os municípios congelado as
passagens do transporte público antes das eleições locais de outubro, os dados
do último ano teriam sido próximos a 6,5%. Em 2013 ambos os preços estão para
subir. O fim da redução temporária do imposto sobre vendas para carros
aumentaria a inflação também. Muitos analistas agora pensam que a inflação
seria próxima a 6% este ano. Semana após semana, eles estão revisando para
baixo suas previsões para o crescimento econômico em 2013, agora para cerca de
3%.
*** tax holiday is a temporary reduction or elimination of a tax.
*** tax holiday é uma redução ou eliminação temporária
de um imposto.