Texto em Inglês e Tradução – Concurso Senado Federal
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Abraços e bons estudos,
Prof. Ena Smith
Periscope:@englishclasses
Partying on a precipice
The holiday provides no respite from economic and political woe
Jan 30th, 2016
JANUARY is a languid month in Brazil. Beyond the hullabaloo at samba schools—practising for their bawdy annual face-off during Carnival, which starts on February 5th—business pauses while Brazilians go on holiday in the scorching southern summer. Fewer cars clog streets; more bodies throng the beaches.
Politicians customarily switch off along with everyone else. Congressmen return from their Christmas break on February 2nd, but will probably do little until after Mardi Gras a week later. Neither they nor the president, Dilma Rousseff, will be able to relax, though. A frightening mosquito-borne disease has put the health authorities on high alert (see page 42). Meanwhile, Brazil’s political and economic crises are deepening. When politicians return to work they may regret the time they took off from attempting to solve them.
The economic slide continues. The number of jobs in the formal sector fell by 1.5m in 2015, the fastest pace of job destruction since comparable records began in 1992. Another 1m could be lost this year, analysts reckon. Sales of vehicles dropped by a fifth last year. The IMF now predicts that GDP will shrink by 3.5% in 2016, more than three times as much as it expected in October. Despite the recession, inflation has risen to nearly 11%, its highest level since 2002.
Male breadwinners make up a higher proportion of the newly unemployed than in previous downturns, which mainly affected female and young workers, notes Naercio Menezes of Insper, a university in São Paulo. That means that the hardship caused by the current recession will be greater. For the relatively young, joblessness is a novelty. Many entered the formal labour market during the commodity boom of 2003-13. No one knows how they will react to their misfortune, warns Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a former Brazilian president who is also a sociologist.
As misery grows, the government’s capacity to tackle its causes is diminishing. Prosecutors investigating the vast bribery scandal centred on Petrobras, the state-controlled oil-and-gas giant, are expected to file additional charges against senior figures in Ms Rousseff’s Workers’ Party (PT), which has already been badly tarnished by the affair. An even bigger worry for Ms Rousseff is the threat of impeachment against her on unrelated allegations that she assented to the use of accounting tricks to hide the true size of Brazil’s fiscal deficit.
Her weakness makes her more dependent on the goodwill of the PT and trade unions aligned with it, which are viscerally opposed to the reforms needed to steady the economy. This month Ms Rousseff dared to acknowledge that Brazilians retire too early (at 55 for men, on average). In effect she admitted that the government cannot stabilise its finances if it continues to devote 40% of (non-interest) spending to pensions. But she backtracked in the face of resistance from her party and the unions. Raising the retirement age would be unacceptable, declared the PT this week.
This will make it much harder for Nelson Barbosa, the newly appointed finance minister, to contain the budget deficit, which is close to 10% of GDP. His main idea is to reintroduce a financial-transactions tax, which is loathed by business but popular among Ms Rousseff’s left-wing allies. But this would raise just 10 billion reais ($2.5 billion) in extra revenue, a fraction of net government borrowing, expected to be 500 billion reais this year. Ms Rousseff wants to summon back a council of wise men and women, which she disbanded during her first term, to suggest reforms. That looks like a delaying tactic.
While fiscal policy wobbles, economists are starting to fret about monetary policy, too. After weeks of hinting that it would raise interest rates to fight inflation, the Central Bank decided on January 20th to hold them steady at 14.25%. The decision may have been justified: higher rates would weaken the economy further and make it still harder to control the fiscal deficit. But it looked like a surrender to political pressure. The Central Bank’s president, Alexandre Tombini, met Ms Rousseff two days before the interest-rate decision. Then he foreshadowed the bank’s U-turn by pointing to the IMF’s gloomier predictions of Brazilian and global growth, which by that point should have been no surprise. Rather than shoring up Brazil’s financial credibility, the Central Bank thus damaged it all the more.
There is little prospect that congressmen will take measures to repair it when they return to work. Those who are pushing for Ms Rousseff’s impeachment concede privately that they are unlikely to muster the two-thirds majority needed in the lower house to send the motion to the Senate. But they plan to drag out the proceeding as long as the (vague) legal deadlines permit. That will accomplish their goal of undermining the president. It will do nothing to buck up Brazil.
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21689617-holiday-provides-no-respite-economic-and-political-woe-partying-precipice
Translation
Partying on a precipice
Festejando em um precipício
The holiday provides no respite from economic and political woe
O feriado não dá pausa da desgraça económica e política
Jan 30th, 2016
30 de Janeiro de 2016
JANUARY is a languid month in Brazil. Beyond the hullabaloo at samba schools—practising for their bawdy annual face-off during Carnival, which starts on February 5th—business pauses while Brazilians go on holiday in the scorching southern summer. Fewer cars clog streets; more bodies throng the beaches.
Janeiro é um mês lânguido no Brasil. Além do tumulto em escolas de samba-praticando para seu picante confronto anual durante o Carnaval, que começa em 5 de fevereiro – que indica pausas nos negócios, enquanto os brasileiros curtem férias no verão escaldante do sul. Menos carros entopem as ruas; mais corpos lotam as praias.
Politicians customarily switch off along with everyone else. Congressmen return from their Christmas break on February 2nd, but will probably do little until after Mardi Gras a week later. Neither they nor the president, Dilma Rousseff, will be able to relax, though. A frightening mosquito-borne disease has put the health authorities on high alert (see page 42). Meanwhile, Brazil’s political and economic crises are deepening. When politicians return to work they may regret the time they took off from attempting to solve them.
Os políticos costumam se desligar juntamente com todos os outros. Os deputados retornam de suas férias de Natal em 2 de fevereiro, mas provavelmente trabalharão pouco até depois do carnaval, uma semana mais tarde. Mas, nem eles nem a presidente, Dilma Rousseff, serão capazes de relaxar. A doença transmitida por um mosquito assustador colocou as autoridades de saúde em alerta máximo. Enquanto isso, as crises políticas e econômicas do Brasil estão se aprofundando. Quando os políticos retornarem ao trabalho pode ser que lamentem o tempo que tiraram de folga para não tentar resolver os problemas.
The economic slide continues. The number of jobs in the formal sector fell by 1.5m in 2015, the fastest pace of job destruction since comparable records began in 1992. Another 1m could be lost this year, analysts reckon. Sales of vehicles dropped by a fifth last year. The IMF now predicts that GDP will shrink by 3.5% in 2016, more than three times as much as it expected in October. Despite the recession, inflation has risen to nearly 11%, its highest level since 2002.
O declínio econômico continua. O número de empregos no setor formal caiu 1,5 milhões em 2015, o ritmo mais rápido de destruição de emprego desde que os registros comparáveis começaram em 1992. Os analistas calculam que mais de 1 milhão podem ser perdidos este ano. As vendas de veículos caíram em um quinto no ano passado. O FMI prevê agora que o PIB vai encolher 3,5% em 2016, mais de três vezes mais do que é esperado em outubro. Apesar da recessão, a inflação aumentou para quase 11%, seu nível mais alto desde 2002.
Male breadwinners make up a higher proportion of the newly unemployed than in previous downturns, which mainly affected female and young workers, notes Naercio Menezes of Insper, a university in São Paulo. That means that the hardship caused by the current recession will be greater. For the relatively young, joblessness is a novelty. Many entered the formal labour market during the commodity boom of 2003-13. No one knows how they will react to their misfortune, warns Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a former Brazilian president who is also a sociologist.
Os chefes de família do sexo masculino constituem uma maior proporção de recém-desempregados do que em crises anteriores, o que afetou principalmente as mulheres e jovens trabalhadores, observa Naercio Menezes do Insper, uma universidade em São Paulo. Isso significa que as dificuldades causadas pela recessão atual serão maiores. Para os relativamente jovens, o desemprego é uma novidade. Muitos entraram no mercado de trabalho formal durante o boom de commodities de 2003 a 2013. Ninguém sabe como eles vão reagir ao seu infortúnio, avisa Fernando Henrique Cardoso, ex-presidente do Brasil, que também é um sociólogo.
As misery grows, the government’s capacity to tackle its causes is diminishing. Prosecutors investigating the vast bribery scandal centred on Petrobras, the state-controlled oil-and-gas giant, are expected to file additional charges against senior figures in Ms Rousseff’s Workers’ Party (PT), which has already been badly tarnished by the affair. An even bigger worry for Ms Rousseff is the threat of impeachment against her on unrelated allegations that she assented to the use of accounting tricks to hide the true size of Brazil’s fiscal deficit.
Ao passo que a miséria cresce, a capacidade do governo para tratar as suas causas está diminuindo. Os promotores que investigam o grande escândalo de corrupção centrada na Petrobras, a gigante do petróleo e gás controlada pelo Estado, são esperados para apresentar acusações adicionais contra figuras importantes do partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) de Dilma Rouseff, que já foi gravemente manchada pelo caso. Uma preocupação ainda maior para Dilma é a ameaça de impeachment contra ela em acusações não relacionadas que concordaram com o uso de truques de contabilidade para esconder a verdadeira amplitude do défice fiscal do Brasil.
Her weakness makes her more dependent on the goodwill of the PT and trade unions aligned with it, which are viscerally opposed to the reforms needed to steady the economy. This month Ms Rousseff dared to acknowledge that Brazilians retire too early (at 55 for men, on average). In effect she admitted that the government cannot stabilise its finances if it continues to devote 40% of (non-interest) spending to pensions. But she backtracked in the face of resistance from her party and the unions. Raising the retirement age would be unacceptable, declared the PT this week.
Sua fraqueza a torna mais dependente da boa vontade do PT e dos sindicatos alinhados com ele, que são visceralmente contra às reformas necessárias para estabilizar a economia. Este mês Dilma Rousseff se atreveu a reconhecer que os brasileiros se aposentam muito cedo (aos 55 anos para os homens, em média). Com efeito, ela admitiu que o governo não pode estabilizar suas finanças se continua a dedicar 40% dos (sem juros) gastos para as pensões. Mas ela recuou diante da resistência de seu partido e dos sindicatos. A elevação da idade de aposentadoria seria inaceitável, declarou o PT esta semana.
This will make it much harder for Nelson Barbosa, the newly appointed finance minister, to contain the budget deficit, which is close to 10% of GDP. His main idea is to reintroduce a financial-transactions tax, which is loathed by business but popular among Ms Rousseff’s left-wing allies. But this would raise just 10 billion reais ($2.5 billion) in extra revenue, a fraction of net government borrowing, expected to be 500 billion reais this year. Ms Rousseff wants to summon back a council of wise men and women, which she disbanded during her first term, to suggest reforms. That looks like a delaying tactic.
Isto tornará muito mais difícil para Nelson Barbosa, o ministro das Finanças recém-nomeado, conter o défice orçamental, que está perto de 10% do PIB. Sua idéia principal é reintroduzir um imposto sobre as transações financeiras, que é detestado pelas empresas, mas popular entre os aliados de esquerda de Dilma Rousseff. Mas isso elevaria apenas 10 bilhões de reais (2,5 bilhões de dólares) em receita extra, uma fração do endividamento líquido do governo, que deverá ser de 500 bilhões de reais este ano. Dilma quer chamar de volta um conselho de homens e mulheres sábios, que ela se desfez durante seu primeiro mandato, para sugerir reformas. Que se parece com uma manobra dilatória.
While fiscal policy wobbles, economists are starting to fret about monetary policy, too. After weeks of hinting that it would raise interest rates to fight inflation, the Central Bank decided on January 20th to hold them steady at 14.25%. The decision may have been justified: higher rates would weaken the economy further and make it still harder to control the fiscal deficit. But it looked like a surrender to political pressure. The Central Bank’s president, Alexandre Tombini, met Ms Rousseff two days before the interest-rate decision. Then he foreshadowed the bank’s U-turn by pointing to the IMF’s gloomier predictions of Brazilian and global growth, which by that point should have been no surprise. Rather than shoring up Brazil’s financial credibility, the Central Bank thus damaged it all the more.
Embora a política fiscal oscile, os economistas estão começando a se preocupar também com a política monetária. Depois de semanas de insinuações de que iriam elevar as taxas de juros para combater a inflação, o Banco Central decidiu em 20 de janeiro mantê-las estáveis em 14,25%. A decisão pode ter sido justificada: taxas mais elevadas enfraqueceriam ainda mais a economia e tornaria ainda mais difícil de controlar o déficit fiscal. Mas parecia uma rendição à pressão política. O presidente do Banco Central, Alexandre Tombini, reuniu Dilma Rousseff dois dias antes da decisão da taxa de juros. Então ele antecipou a mudança radical do banco, apontando as previsões mais pessimistas do FMI de crescimento brasileiro e mundial, que a esse ponto não deveria ter sido nenhuma surpresa. Portanto, em vez de sustentar a credibilidade financeira do Brasil, o Banco Central a estragou ainda mais.
There is little prospect that congressmen will take measures to repair it when they return to work. Those who are pushing for Ms Rousseff’s impeachment concede privately that they are unlikely to muster the two-thirds majority needed in the lower house to send the motion to the Senate. But they plan to drag out the proceeding as long as the (vague) legal deadlines permit. That will accomplish their goal of undermining the president. It will do nothing to buck up Brazil.
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21689617-holiday-provides-no-respite-economic-and-political-woe-partying-precipice
Há pouca perspectiva de que os deputados vão tomar medidas para reparar isso quando voltarem ao trabalho. Aqueles que estão forçando o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff admitem reservadamente que eles não são susceptíveis de reunir a maioria de dois terços necessária na Câmara dos deputados para enviar a proposta ao Senado. Mas eles pretendem prolongar o processo, desde que os prazos legais (vagos) permitam. Isso irá realizar seu objetivo de minar a presidente. Isso não fará nada para animar o Brasil.